ASK THE METEOROLOGIST
“How do you know what the weather will be like?”
Mrs. Einck’s Kindergarten Class, Griffin Creek Elementary
First things first, we start our forecasts with what is currently happening, looking at the past and present weather observations to get a good idea of what is currently happening with the weather. We use satellite, radar, and the information from weather stations around the area to provide us with our information. After we get a good handle on the current situation, we can then project what might happen in the future. It’s important to remember that looking at what storm systems have done in the past can help us predict how they will behave in the future.
Then comes the next part: predicting what will most likely happen. Will it rain? Will it be sunny? To help us, we use forecast models to “see the future!” These are computer programs that use calculus equations and weather observations to input as variables. The answer it spits out then helps us paint the picture of our future weather pattern! It is up to us as meteorologists to decide if the models are creating “reasonable” forecasts, and sometimes we use a blend of different models to develop what we think will actually happen.
Great question!
Chief Meteorologist Kate McKenna